Dr. Optimism Or How I Learned to Stop Expectations and Love the Browns
With the 2010 NFL season on the horizon expectations are at monumental highs for every team around the league including your Cleveland Browns.
Every season we as observers of the NFL are often mislead into believing based off coaching changes, roster moves, and misinformed hype that our favorite team will in fact surprise the masses. As a psychological misstep we almost force ourselves into creating a value for this expected amount of improvement year after year… wins.
Wins are undoubtedly the most important stat in football or any sport for that matter as it is what defines success or failure. Because of that, we as observers can’t help but predict that number for our team, our friends teams or anyone else who we can find. However, the sad truth is that expectations and predictions are the most futile attempt at projection that can occur.
As a fan it is quite easy to simply say, “Oh yeah, the Browns will easily go 7-9 this season.” or, “Man the Steelers are going to be awful 6-10 at best.” However, this innocent game of guessing puts unwarranted expectations on teams that are often times completely misrepresented in terms of predictions.
As an example, earlier today I was watching a Yahoo Sports fantasy football video piece that suggested starting Cadillac Williams of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week one against the Browns. Obviously, that isn’t necessarily a bold prediction, however his reasoning behind the suggestion was hardly valuable.
The suggester recalled a stat from last year in which the Browns allowed 147 rushing yards-per-game in 2009. My immediate thought was, “Were they really that bad against the run?” But, soon after I began to recall all the defensive changes the Browns have made since last season and it quickly became apparent that the stat listed above is completely useless.
The Browns are the Browns and therefore that statistic from last year will always carry with the team, however the amount of roster carry over makes it incredibly hard to even use that as an expectation heading forward.
The Browns 2010 week one defensive starters will feature six new faces and additions including four linebackers. Eric Barton, Sheldon Brown, Chris Gocong, Scott Fujita, Matt Roth, and TJ Ward. Now, the reason I include Barton and Roth on this list is because each of them played less than half of the season last year and can’t exactly be blamed for the poor rush defense that occurred before or after they were on the roster. Furthermore, Roth just completed his first training camp with the team.
At the same time, I could very easily add Ahtyba Rubin, Shawn Rogers, or Joe Haden to this list if I wanted to get real technical. Shawn Rogers will primarily start in a new position at defensive end this season while Rubin takes over for him at nose tackle. This combination is completely different defensive front that the Browns have ever played with before and could end up being extremely effective.
At the same time, while Joe Haden is not a starter he will certainly be on the field a ton during nickel situations. His tackling is a huge improvement alone over last years starter Brandon McDonald and could easily prevent the opposition from racking up extra long carries. Mike Furrey anyone?
The point of all this is simple, Yahoo Sports is expecting Cadillac Williams to have a huge game based off the expectations that the Browns defense will allow 147 ypg again this season despite being fifth overall on defense during the preseason (yes, I know it’s just preseason). The team may still be the Browns, but at least nine out of the 11/12 (if you count nickel) starters on defense are either new or in new positions in 2010.
I won’t be hypocritical here and make statistical expectations for the Browns defense this season, but the roster moves they have made certainly seem to have improved the team on paper.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, Jake Delhomme’s effective and encouraging preseason play along with the anticipation behind the flash package and newly created cyclone package have created quite the question mark around the Browns offense heading into 2010.
Delhomme who is now entering his 13th NFL season has almost infected the Browns players, coaches and fans with his leadership. The members of this organization and city have become so accustomed to not just bad, but awful quarterback play and more specifically quarterback leadership over the past ten years that Delhomme kind of seems like our savior.
While Delhommes 110 passer rating and 78% completion rate during the preseason was effective it was hardly mind-blowing for analysts around the nation, but for Cleveland it’s almost unbelievable. Despite having the worst pro year of his career last season in Carolina Delhomme looks poised to lead this Browns team passed mediocrity in 2010.
The biggest benefits of the Delhomme addition will undoubtedly be the receivers. Mohamed Massaquoi who is entering his sophomore season in the NFL stands the most to gain because of his upside. As a 6-2 207 lbs receiver Mohamed has all the intangibles to become a legitimate #1 NFL wideout. In his rookie year, receiving passes from Brady Quinn, Derek Anderson, and Brett Ratliff, Massaquoi hauled in 34 passes for 624 yards and an impressive 18.4 avg with three touchdowns.
It’s hardly fair to say that Massaquoi will jump to 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, but it isn’t out of the question either. The Browns had absolutely no confidence in their passing game last year and Mohamed still manged to rack up fairly decent numbers for a rookie on the worst passing team in the NFL with 129 yards-per-game as a team. At the very least, Massaquoi will recreate his numbers from last season.
Meanwhile, two other notable Browns receivers are attempting to make a mark on the NFL this season. The man selected before Massaquoi in last years draft Brian Robiskie is trying to rebound from a forgettable rookie season in the NFL. In 11 games Robiskie only managed 7 catches for 106 yards and failed to grab his first career touchdown.
Robiskie who Ohio State fans know well was promoted as one of the most “NFL ready” receivers coming out in the draft and was expected to make an immediate impact. After struggling for nearly a year adjusting to the NFL game it finally appears as though Robiskie will breakthrough. The coaching staff has spoken so highly of Brian through camp that it makes even the most cynical of critics become optimistic.
The leadership of Delhomme her obviously plays a huge roll. Jake will be carrying both Massaquoi and Robiskie on his shoulders this year and is proud to be able to do so.
The best return man in NFL history is also attempting to expand his role on offense by becoming a legitimate receiving option. It was just announced by the Akron Beacon Journal that this season Cribbs will be taken off kick and punt coverage duties for the first time in his career. While the Pro-Bowler will remain the teams lead return man his defensive duties will dissipate.
Overall the Browns offense is looking to jump forward a few leaps and bounds this season especially in the passing game. Meanwhile, the running game looks to continue exactly where they left off despite the absence of rookie standout Montario Hardesty who is out for the season with a torn ACL.
Lastly, the offensive line appears the strongest its been in a long time. Joe Thomas is coming off his third Pro Bowl appearance and will cement his status as the best offensive lineman in football this year. Eric Steinbach while not getting any younger is still an effective wingman for Thomas on the left side of the line. Alex Mack who is also going into his second season showed a ton of improvement last year and is listed by ESPN as one of Cleveland’s best players overall.
On the other side of the line, Shawn Lauvao will begin his rookie campaign starting at right guard and man is that good news. The Browns barring and regression from Lauvao have four quality starting lineman for the next few years… that’s not easy to do. At right tackle it will most likely be a revolving door centered around Tony Pashos handling of the running game.
All this combined, the Browns obviously have improved from the team that went 5-11 last year. It’s hard exactly to predict the Browns success and failure because there is just so much new. Therefore, I won’t. The Browns will obviously be competitive this season and resemble an actual football team and that’s all we can really ask for.
After two winnable games in weeks one and two the Browns have a very tough stretch ahead that they hope to be .500 coming out of leading into the bye week.
However, anything is possible. If the Browns can win early and ride that momentum they could easily push for a positive record. But, should they stumble early it could all go down hill very easily. It’s this premise that makes predictions and expectations almost futile.
The Browns are improved, the Browns have a great front office, and the Browns will compete in 2010. Beyond that it’s anyone’s guess as to the success and failure of the team.
My suggestion to all Browns followers and fans is to just try to enjoy the season especially early on. Observe the progression of the young players. Watch the games as a coach would and don’t always value success just by wins and losses.
It should be a fun season so don’t let your expectations for 9-7, 7-9, or 5-11 diminish your hope heading into the future. I have no doubt, before long this team will be competing for the division crown annually.
